Why Rafael Nadal will spoil the Djokovic-Murray party

It’s been branded the next biggest thing in men’s tennis. It’s what everyone’s talking about. Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. Whichever way you look at it, it just can’t escape us. The two 25-year-olds, born only a week a part, are taking the world by storm. Apparently they’re the real deal. Or at least so everyone says.

But are they really?

There’s no denying they have the talent. They are two of the most fluid players on tour and arguably the best returners of the game. They’re counterpunchers, and every match they play is jaw-dropping stuff. Their differences in style and quality of play are so minute, it really only comes down to a point here and there between them. The competition between these two is so strong that the pressure just intensifies dramatically with every match.

It’s understandable why people would dub them the next biggest thing. Despite beginning their rivalry back when they were juniors, since turning professional, Djokovic and Murray have met 17 times on the ATP tour with the Serb leading their head-to-head matches 10-7.

This year alone showcased their passion during their seven encounters. Although Djokovic once again prevailed 4-3, Murray showed some fight in him this season which he had seemed to be lacking the past couple of years. This became increasingly evident when he finally claimed his maiden Grand Slam title at Flushing Meadows. Furthermore, of the four matches he did lose to Djokovic, three of them went the distance, including that epic 5-set marathon at the Australian Open semi-finals.

The emergence of their rivalry this season has also sparked attention from many former greats of the game, including none other than six-time Grand Slam champion Boris Becker. Becker has been quick to jump on the Djokovic-Murray bandwagon and tout them as the next big thing. He believes they’re the main focus of men’s tennis right now and that their rivalry could not only span several years but transpire to become one of the greatest rivalries the game has ever seen. In a London interview earlier this month he declared, “Djokovic and Murray have the edge right now. Federer and Nadal was one of the best rivalries ever, and they had it for five years. Djokovic versus Murray could be the next.”

After observing this year there’s no doubt Becker’s statement is valid and there is nothing better right now than watching these two battle it out on court for hours and hours punishing the ball left, right and centre. Yet the one crucial thing both he and the rest of the Djokovic-Murray supporters seem to forget is that for the past five months we have been without Spanish superstar Rafael Nadal.

It’s hard to imagine a tennis season without the 11-time Grand Slam champion but yet this season we’ve unfortunately had to witness his absence for close to half a year. His niggling knee injury has forced him to take a sabbatical from the game since his shock second round exit at Wimbledon back in June and his presence on tour has been sorely missed.

Nadal is a special player. A brilliant shot maker, his ability to counter both aggression and defence at the same time is something that no other player on tour can equal. He’s a risk taker and excellent defender of the ball who prides himself on hitting heavy topspin groundstrokes, having speedy footwork and tenacious court coverage. He’s also one of the most consistent players on tour opting for longer rallies rather than powerful winners.

He’s a true champion and thus his return next year will undoubtedly shake up the new Djokovic-Murray rivalry. Not only has he won a major every year since 2005, he has also achieved the golden career grand slam, a feat in which only two men in the history of tennis have managed to achieve. He also holds a 50-29 record against the other three members of the Big Four (Djokovic, Murray and Federer) and has a winning record against each of them individually. Thus, once he’s back he will definitely be pressing hard for those grand slam trophies once again, but in particular with Djokovic, as they have so often done in the past few seasons.

For years though it was always the Federer-Nadal spectacle, out in their own little world, competing in slam after slam, final after final, continuously dominating the game. But over the past few seasons it’s become apparent that the game was turning into the Novak and Rafa show. They have met 33 times in their professional career, the most of any active head-to-head currently on the ATP tour, and in the last two years alone they have competed in four of the eight grand slam finals. Before Nadal’s injury this year the pair were also the holders of the previous nine grand slam trophies, dating back to the 2010 Australian Open.

However it’s been a turbulent year for the Spaniard and former world number one. After losing that epic final to Djokovic at the Australian Open he bounced back in fine form to claim his seventh Roland Garros crown and become the most successful player ever at the tournament. He was looking in great touch. But his struggling knees have resulted in the 26-year-old withdrawing from more than half the season’s events and slump down to world number four, a position he hasn’t been in since early 2010.

His return next year will be welcomed with open arms but the key to his success will undoubtedly lie with his health. He was diagnosed with Hoffa’s syndrome back in August, an impingement on the fat pad of his left knee which resulted in tenderness and swelling around the bottom of his knee cap. His treatment so far has included complete rest and avoiding high intensity activities and large amounts of pressure like running and jolting. His main issue however is that if it is not completely healed before he decides to return, he could require extensive surgery or be forced out permanently from the game. Although both he and coach ‘Uncle Toni’ have adamantly stated that he would not return until he is 100% healthy, with injuries like these it is simply too hard to tell just how much long-term damage it has done and what the likely implications for resuming high athletic competition will be.

It’s naive to assume Rafa will do amazingly well in the first half of next year. He will enter the Australian Open with virtually no match fitness or practice so it’ll be surprising if he can make a huge impact at the tournament. And if he doesn’t perform well he will have compatriot David Ferrer breathing down his neck for that number four ranking. He’s probably unlikely to not get going until at least the clay court season at the earliest where he will start to feel at home again and more comfortable, especially on a surface that is more conducive to his niggling injuries. Whether he’ll win an eighth Roland Garros title is up for debate but will ultimately depend on Djokovic and Federer’s form. Murray is not much of a clay court player so despite his emergence on the list of major winners, it’s unlikely he’ll claim a title in Paris. However as soon as Rafa gets going and is back up to full strength, whenever that may be, he will definitely be a force to be reckoned with.

It’s hard to say where these rivalries will go. But if Nadal slumps to five, he’s likely to be exposed in the same half of the draw as Murray in the major tournaments, and if that’s the case it will certainly be a test of both players’ strength and capability. However Nadal currently leads their head-to-head 13-5 so he knows how to beat him, but having not played each other this year, their matches could tell a different story. Murray’s now on the mend and Djokovic is in the form of his life, but if Nadal can stay healthy next year, once his fitness is back up to scratch, his strength, experience and unbelievable talent will no doubt cause huge trouble for Murray and in particular his rivalry with Djokovic.

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